In recent weeks, floods in Europe, dead or dying corals in the Indian Ocean, rising temperatures and melting ice packs have all been laid at the door of manmade changes in Earth’s atmosphere, brought about largely as a result of increasing levels of carbon dioxide, emitted when fossil fuels are burned in the production of energy to support our industrial societies.
Scientists are generally more reluctant than journalists to make the link between the global phenomenon of climate change and individual weather-related events. Still, says John Barnes, the scientist in charge of the U.S. government’s Mauna Loa meteorological observatory on the slopes of Mauna Loa, climate experts are in near-universal agreement that the changes in atmospheric levels of carbon will inevitably have consequences for weather. Already the observatory, which has compiled what is perhaps the longest and most accurate data set for atmospheric carbon measurements in the world, has determined that average temperatures on Mauna Loa have risen 1.3 degrees Celsius (about 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1977. The average annual rate of increase is 0.04 degrees Celsius. Since 1957, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above the observatory have risen from 315 parts per million to now roughly 375 ppm.
The state Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism reports that Honolulu’s average temperature has increased by 4.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last century, while average annual rainfall has diminished 20 percent over the last 90 years. At Honolulu, Nawiliwili, and Hilo, sea levels have increased between 6 and 14 inches over the last century.
But are these effects of global warming?
No one in any of the several research agencies in the state is ready to go on record with a statement placing the blame for any of Hawai`i’s myriad environmental problems at the door of climate change. Yet few rule out the possibility that we may already be seeing manifestations of global warming in some of the downward trends in natural resources.
Daily average temperature in degrees Celsius for the CMDL Observatory at Mauna Loa, Hawai`i. The black line is a linear regression best fit to the daily anomalies (+0.04C/year).
Measurements made at the National Oceanic and Atmostpheric Administration’s observatory high on the slopes of Mauna Loa, Hawai`i, depict a clear upward trend in temperatures. On average, temperatures at the station have been rising .04 degrees Celsius each year, amounting to an increase of 1 degree C (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) over the last quarter century. For more information on the measurements at Mauna Loa, see [url=http://stratus.mlo.hawaii.gov/Projects/Fproject.htm]http://stratus.mlo.hawaii.gov/Projects/Fproject.htm[/url]
In the October 13 issue of Science magazine, a team of 17 eminent scientists, including co-chairs of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Working Group, described the new era the Earth is about to embark on as the “Anthropocene” Era. As more is learned about the effects of global warming, they write, “the debate about distinguishing human effects from natural variability will inevitably abateÉ Our present state of uncertainty arises largely from lack of integration of information. Nevertheless, scientists’ abilities to predict the future will always have a component of uncertainty. This uncertainty should not be confused with lack of knowledge nor should it be used as an excuse to postpone prudent policy decisions based on the best information available at the time.”
Close to Home
So what prudent policies is Hawai`i advancing?
The Hawai`i Energy Strategy 2000, published by the DBEDT last January, departs from previous state energy plans in that for the first time, it takes note of “the potential effects on Hawai`i of global climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions” and adds, as an objective of the state energy strategy, the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions “from energy supply and use.”
The document outlines a number of scenarios for Hawai`i’s future energy use, depending on a range of choices made in fuel portfolios for electricity and transportation uses. Even the most ambitious scenario for electrical power generation, which calls for 20 percent of energy to come from renewable resources, exceeds by nearly 20 percent — 3.7 million tons of carbon dioxide — the goals set forth in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, under which the United States is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a point that is 7 percent less than 1990 levels. Under the “business as usual” scenario, Hawai`i emissions in the year 2010 would be 3.7 million tons – 23.3 percent – above the Kyoto target.
Similar scenarios were drawn up for the transportation sector. Once again, the most energy-efficient scenario, calling for increasing the number of highly efficient vehicles on the state’s roads, produced emissions that are still some 14 percent above the Kyoto target.
The only hope Hawai`i has of reducing its emissions to a level at or below the Kyoto target (just under 16 million tons of CO2 annually) by 2010 involves a combination of improved efficiency in aircraft used on inter-island trips, increased use of ethanol fuels, a 100 percent increase in new vehicle efficiency, and a carbon tax of $125 per ton of CO2 emissions.
Yet all signs point to increasing emissions, increasing energy consumption, and increasing reliance on fossil fuels. All four electric utilities in Hawai`i are planning to augment existing generating capacity with major, new oil-fired plants. Renewable resources make up only a small fraction of their portfolios. On the roads, one is confronted with the unmistakable trend toward the purchase of larger, less fuel-efficient vehicles, including sport-utility vans (sales of which totaled 8,699 in 1998). While Honolulu has recently proposed a modest improvement in its bus system, public transportation in all the other counties is either altogether unavailable or largely inconvenient. Development of bicycle paths remains a novelty, while across the state, new subdivisions continue to be developed without sidewalks and miles from the closest grocery store, workplaces, or shops.
These criticisms are not new. Many may be found in the appendix to the state’s Energy Strategy 2000, which contains comments made by many of those attending a conference on energy held last December.
Yet in Hawai`i, as in most other parts of the country, public policy continues to be dominated by those who, for economic reasons, are in denial when it comes to the relation between deteriorating climatic conditions and rising atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide.
Hawai`i alone cannot save itself. Whether our sea levels rise to the point coastal areas are flooded and coral reefs drown, whether the temperatures in our rain forests increase to the point native species cannot hang on any longer, and whether increasingly severe El Nino events diminish our groundwater sources to the point pure water itself becomes a luxury item – these matters are largely outside the state’s ability to control, no matter what sort of draconian measures we may impose on ourselves.
But if Hawai`i, one of the Earth’s most vulnerable spots when it comes to global warming, does nothing, how can it expect or demand more from others whose lives and livelihoods are not similarly threatened?
Morally and politically, it cannot make such demands. Hawai`i must embrace – at once and completely – the very same approaches to energy that are needed on a global scale to mitigate the harsher impacts of an “Anthropocene” Age. The Legislature, Public Utilities Commission, and counties can all begin by adopting many of the measures outlined in the Hawai`i Energy Strategy 2000, including a carbon tax that reflects the real costs of burning fossil fuels and adoption of a renewable portfolio standard for the state. Private citizens can help by making wise choices in their means of commuting (mass transit, bicycles, or car pools, instead of single-occupant cars), their consumption of electricity (solar water heaters, energy-efficient appliances, low-energy fluorescent lamps), and the areas where they live (within walking or bicycling distance of shops and schools).
Is this asking too much? The answer to this lies in considering the cost of doing nothing: more emissions, dirtier air, more congested highways and roads, rising energy costs, increased urban sprawl, landscapes scarred by transmission lines and smokestacks.
In such a light, alternative energy is not just affordable, it is a moral imperative.
For Further Reading:
The state Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism offers a wide range of reports and recommendations on its website. Here are a few:
[url=http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/e_save.html]http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/e_save.html[/url] — “How to Save $$ on Your Energy Bills”
[url=http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/hes2000/index.html]http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/hes2000/index.html[/url] — Hawai`i Energy Strategy 2000
[url=http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/rps.html#section01–]http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/rps.html#section01–[/url] Renewable Portfolio Standards
Volume 11, Number 7 January 2001
Leave a Reply